New population projections
show more growth in state
Posted 11/7/02

Minnesota's population is projected to grow to 5.45 million by 2010 and 6.27 million by 2030, according to the report, issued by the State Demographic Center at Minnesota Planning. The current population is about 5 million.

The report, Minnesota Population Projections 2000-2003, was released Oct. 23.

Gains are expected to be greatest in the Rochester-Twin Cities-St. Cloud corridor, but many rural areas can anticipate growth as well, especially if they have lakes and forests. Scott, Sherburne and Carver counties are projected to be the fastest-growing in this decade while 21 counties, mostly in western Minnesota, are expected to lose population.

While the stateís population is anticipated to increase 11 percent from 2000 to 2010, Mille Lacs Countyís population is expected to increase from 13-37 percent. Most of those increases will take place in the 45-65 age group and the 65+ category.

Mille Lacs County has a current population of 22,330. Slightly more than 50 percent of the population in Mille Lacs County is females. That percentage of females to males is anticipated to remain the same through 2030.

By 2010, the population in Mille Lacs County is anticipate to be 28,270 and by 2030, the population is expected to reach 34,160.

The new figures are higher than previous projections series, said Gillaspy. "This is mainly because we are assuming Minnesota will continue to have net in-migration from other states and countries. During the 1990s we had about a quarter of a million more people move in than move out. When you add in these new people and their kids and grandkids, you end up with quite a few more people."

The projections show the population will be older, thanks largely to continued aging of the baby boom generation. The number of Minnesotans ages 50 to 64 is expected to grow by more than 300,000 between 2000 and 2010. Younger age groups are expected to grow more modestly. The number of children under 15 is projected to grow about 10,000, for instance, while the number of 15- to 24-year olds is expected to rise by about 62,000.

"Based on these projections, we will have a lot of challenges and a lot of opportunities over the next 30 years," Minnesota Planning Director Dean Barkley said. "A growing population will increase demand for roads and housing, especially in the metropolitan areas that are expected to account for the most growth. Health care costs can be expected to skyrocket as the older population grows rapidly."

Regions of the state will be affected differently by the projected population trends, Barkley noted. Though the population of school-age children is expected to grow modestly statewide, many rural areas can expect to see continued declines in school enrollments. Areas with lakes and forests can expect escalating property values and continued debates over how to maintain the quality of lake waters. The dramatic growth in the older population will be most visible in Twin Cities suburbs.

State Demographer Tom Gillaspy noted that the new report does not include projections by race or ethnicity.

"With all the changes in the way race information is collected in the census, we don't have adequate trend data or vital statistics figures to do race projections right now."

The report is available online at www.mnplan.state. mn.us It includes projections by age and gender for the state, counties development regions and metropolitan areas. The projections are benchmarked to the 2000 census.

Minnesota Planning is a state agency that develops long-range plans for the state, stimulates public participation in Minnesota's future and coordinates activities among all levels of government.